Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 1.021909 1.193078 1.383737 1.611821 1.877273 2.176508 2.539523
2024-12-22 0.710964 0.927157 1.195292 1.552208 2.014985 2.595059 3.378146
2024-12-29 0.604020 0.851466 1.182441 1.657346 2.321611 3.218538 4.523572
2025-01-05 0.487113 0.731694 1.079613 1.610330 2.399943 3.532627 5.284268
2025-01-12 0.400267 0.635251 0.987816 1.554877 2.444845 3.790021 5.982792
2025-01-19 0.335742 0.559745 0.912243 1.506707 2.485300 4.035154 6.683290
2025-01-26 0.299937 0.522996 0.889578 1.535047 2.644768 4.478533 7.748727
2025-02-02 0.283226 0.514737 0.910753 1.636361 2.934830 5.166111 9.305207
2025-02-09 0.260471 0.492132 0.903560 1.686065 3.139886 5.731356 10.719400
2025-02-16 0.237024 0.464565 0.883252 1.708114 3.295852 6.225524 12.064318
2025-02-23 0.213980 0.434264 0.853459 1.707395 3.407225 6.648163 13.324056
2025-03-02 0.192113 0.403078 0.817638 1.689527 3.481619 7.006927 14.500896
2025-03-09 0.175244 0.380241 0.796337 1.700098 3.618714 7.513668 16.060420
2025-03-16 0.153561 0.344398 0.744299 1.640859 3.605674 7.719883 17.033957
2025-03-23 0.149601 0.346220 0.770898 1.752089 3.968225 8.746994 19.890559
2025-03-30 0.132899 0.317153 0.727066 1.702403 3.971183 9.005774 21.090081
2025-04-06 0.117658 0.289255 0.682095 1.643796 3.945553 9.196968 22.159005
2025-04-13 0.104820 0.265227 0.642777 1.592886 3.930556 9.409025 23.302379
2025-04-20 0.098490 0.256220 0.637510 1.622838 4.112413 10.099468 25.682839
2025-04-27 0.097113 0.259483 0.662216 1.729914 4.497517 11.320704 29.530966
2025-05-04 0.092702 0.254275 0.665252 1.782444 4.751806 12.252711 32.768741
2025-05-11 0.087157 0.245269 0.657466 1.805747 4.933354 13.023989 35.689412
2025-05-18 0.080997 0.233705 0.641499 1.804987 5.050603 13.643379 38.284494